The global economy has absorbed another major shock without falling into recession, but the apparent resilience masks a widening divide between countries benefiting from artificial-intelligence investment and those paying more for energy, food and borrowing. That tension is likely to define economic policy through 2027.
The International Monetary Fund projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, while expecting worldwide headline inflation to rise to 4.7% this year before easing to 4.1% next year. The OECD is more cautious, forecasting growth of 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. The difference reflects uncertainty over the duration of the Middle East conflict, commodity prices and the strength of investment tied to AI. The IMF outlook and the OECD’s interim report both describe an economy that is holding up, but under increasing strain.
Why the shock has not become a global crisis
Energy markets have so far provided an important buffer. The OECD says sizeable oil inventories, additional supply from outside Gulf producers and government support measures have softened the immediate effects of the conflict. Those cushions have prevented a repeat of the most severe energy disruptions seen in earlier crises, when sudden price increases rapidly damaged household incomes and industrial production.
That protection is conditional. Higher energy costs still feed into transport, food and manufacturing, while governments must decide how much assistance they can afford. Broad subsidies can shield consumers in the short term but add pressure to public finances and weaken incentives to reduce consumption. Allowing prices to pass through protects budgets but risks worsening inequality and undermining political support.
“The global economy remains resilient despite mounting challenges, but the outlook is becoming increasingly uneven across countries,” the IMF said in its assessment of the 2026 outlook.
AI is supporting growth—but concentrating risk
The strongest positive force in the current cycle is AI-related investment. The OECD says continued activity in AI has supported investment, production and trade, while the IMF notes that economies integrated into the technology supply chain are outperforming many energy-importing countries.
This boom is not evenly distributed. The gains accrue first to firms producing advanced chips, computing equipment, data-centre infrastructure and specialized software. Countries without those capabilities may receive some benefits through productivity improvements, but they also face the possibility of importing expensive technology while losing jobs in routine information work.
There is also a financial risk. The IMF has warned that expectations surrounding AI could prove too optimistic, producing a correction in technology markets. A retreat in valuations would not necessarily cause a global recession, but it could reduce investment, weaken business confidence and expose lenders or funds that have financed rapid data-centre expansion.
Inflation leaves central banks with little room
The policy dilemma is becoming sharper. Growth is slowing, yet inflation is expected to rise in the near term because of energy and commodity prices. Central banks that cut interest rates too quickly could allow temporary supply shocks to spread into wages and services. Keeping rates high for too long, however, would intensify pressure on households, construction and heavily indebted governments.
The OECD expects G20 inflation to fall from 4.1% in 2026 to 3.6% in 2027, suggesting that policymakers may eventually gain room to ease. But that forecast depends on energy prices moderating and monetary policy containing broader price pressures. A renewed disruption to oil supplies would complicate that path.
What comes next
The next phase will be determined by three variables: the conflict’s effect on energy flows, the durability of AI spending and the ability of governments to support vulnerable households without creating unsustainable deficits.
Optimists can point to resilient trade, strong technology investment and the prospect of easing inflation in 2027. A more pessimistic reading is that headline growth conceals weak demand in parts of Europe, acute pressure on poorer energy importers and financial markets priced for continued technological gains.
The central challenge is therefore distribution, not simply growth. If AI investment raises productivity while energy prices stabilize, the global expansion could broaden. If technology gains remain concentrated and geopolitical shocks persist, the world may record acceptable aggregate growth while more countries experience stagnation, fiscal stress and political backlash.