A Serbian shockwave

Europe’s political contest is no longer being defined solely in Berlin, Paris or Brussels. It is increasingly being decided in states where public patience with entrenched power has reached its limit. Serbia’s snap election has offered the clearest example yet.

The student-backed Student List defeated the political machine associated with Aleksandar Vučić, ending the Serbian Progressive Party’s 14-year grip on power. Preliminary results gave the Student List more than 52 per cent of the vote and around 140 seats, while Vučić’s United Serbia secured roughly 39 per cent and 104 seats.[1][2][3]

The result is more than a domestic upset. It is a warning to every European government that claims stability while allowing institutions to weaken and public trust to erode. Serbia’s student movement grew from protests over corruption and the deadly collapse of a railway-station canopy in Novi Sad. Its success demonstrates that a movement without a traditional political hierarchy can still mobilise a national majority when it channels anger into a credible electoral alternative.[4][6]

Brussels will now face an uncomfortable partner. A new government may seek a reset in Serbia’s relationship with the European Union, but questions remain over its position on sanctions against Russia and the future of Kosovo. The European project cannot be built on wishful thinking. If Serbia is to move closer to the Union, democratic standards must advance alongside geopolitical alignment.

Brussels reaches for pragmatism

The EU is simultaneously attempting to manage another difficult relationship: its confrontation with Hungary. European leaders have been travelling to Budapest as they explore whether years of political hostility can give way to practical cooperation.

The Commission’s approval of Hungary’s €5.4 billion defence-loan application under the SAFE programme suggests that security is creating a new vocabulary between Budapest and Brussels. More than €21 billion remains available for a later funding round, giving both sides an incentive to keep negotiations alive.[5]

Yet money cannot substitute for trust. Hungary’s government has repeatedly challenged the Union’s approach to the rule of law, migration and Ukraine. A reset should not mean abandoning scrutiny. It should mean recognising that Europe’s strategic interests require both unity and accountability.

Security and the rights question

That tension is also evident in the EU’s border policy. Frontex is set to receive 17,000 additional officers for deportation operations, a dramatic expansion that reflects the political pressure surrounding irregular migration.[7]

European governments are entitled to enforce their borders. But enforcement without transparent oversight risks damaging the very legal order that the Union claims to defend. Rights monitors have warned that scrutiny could be weakened as deportation capacity grows. Those warnings must not be dismissed as an obstacle to security. Effective enforcement requires lawful procedures, independent monitoring and clear responsibility when abuses occur.

The raid on offices in Brussels and Strasbourg linked to the far-right Patriots for Europe group, over alleged misuse of European Parliament funds, reinforces another lesson: Europe’s sovereignty is threatened not only at its borders but also inside its institutions. Democratic parties that demand national control must themselves be held to the highest standards of public accountability.[7]

Spain’s choice

Spain will provide another decisive test on 29 November 2026, when voters go to the polls in a snap election called after parliament rejected Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s housing decrees. Current polling places the conservative People’s Party ahead, while Vox is gaining enough support to become indispensable to a possible right-wing government.[4]

Housing has become the language of a wider European frustration. Younger voters face high rents, limited access to ownership and a sense that established parties speak about social justice without delivering material security. Sánchez’s defeat shows how quickly a government can lose authority when parliamentary survival becomes detached from everyday concerns.

If the People’s Party requires Vox, Spain could join the growing list of European states where the mainstream right must decide whether governing power is worth a bargain with the populist right. That choice will affect migration, the economy and Spain’s influence in the EU.

France under pressure

France is approaching its own political crossroads. Violent protests and riots have intensified pressure on Emmanuel Macron’s government, while Marine Le Pen is campaigning on a programme that could substantially alter France’s relationship with the Union. Separately, Raphaël Glucksmann won the French social-democratic primary with more than 66 per cent of the vote, offering a potential alternative to both Macronism and the nationalist right.[5][10]

France’s crisis is not simply a contest between personalities. It is a struggle over whether European integration can remain compatible with national control, public order and economic protection. If mainstream parties fail to answer those concerns, voters will continue to turn toward movements promising rupture.

Europe’s future will not be decided by one election. It will be shaped by a sequence of them: Serbia’s democratic revolt, Spain’s rightward pressure and France’s approaching reckoning. The message is consistent. Citizens are demanding governments that are more accountable, more competent and more willing to defend their interests. Brussels can respond with renewal—or wait for the next shock.