US-CHINA RIVALRY INTENSIFIES ASIA-PACIFIC RISKS

In 2026, US-China competition dominates Asia-Pacific geopolitics, centered on control of key maritime routes like the Malacca Strait, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea chokepoints including Spratly and Paracel Islands. The US bolsters alliances with Japan, South Korea, Philippines, and Taiwan to counter China's militarization and secure trade flows vital for energy imports to East Asia. Japan under PM Sanae Takaichi is expanding its security role, signing deals with Australia for submarines and critical minerals, while deepening ties with Vietnam amid Middle East energy disruptions. Escalating tensions in the South China Sea, including Philippines-China clashes, heighten risks of regional instability and supply chain disruptions.