US-CHINA RIVALRY INTENSIFIES ASIA-PACIFIC RISKS

In 2026, the Asia-Pacific region faces escalating geopolitical tensions driven by US-China competition over critical maritime routes, including the Malacca Strait, Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea chokepoints. The US is bolstering alliances with Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines to counter China's militarization of the Spratly, Paracel, and Senkaku Islands. Territorial disputes fuel resource competitions for oil, gas, and control of sea lines of communication vital to global trade. Trade dynamics shift with ASEAN deepening manufacturing roles, tech collaborations like Taiwan-Japan semiconductor partnerships, and geoeconomic pressures from tariffs and supply chain resilience efforts.