US-CHINA RIVALRY SHAPES ASIA-PACIFIC

The most important Asia-Pacific story is the intensifying US-China rivalry, which is driving regional security, diplomatic alignments, and economic governance across the Indo-Pacific. Competition over maritime routes, strategic chokepoints, and disputed areas such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula remains central to the region’s risk outlook. At the same time, trade is being reshaped by supply-chain diversification toward ASEAN and by the growing importance of AI-related manufacturing, especially semiconductors and data-center equipment. Regional partners such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and ASEAN states are responding by deepening security and economic cooperation to reduce coercion risk and preserve stability.