US-CHINA RIVALRY DRIVES ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND TRADE IN 2026

The US-China rivalry remains the dominant force shaping Asia-Pacific geopolitics, trade, and regional security throughout 2026, driving competition over maritime routes and strategic areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea. China is strengthening its military capabilities near Korea and in the South China Sea while conducting major exercises, heightening regional tensions. Washington and Beijing are intensifying their competition across the region as instability persists on the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan continues to anchor US and allied involvement due to its technological centrality. Japan and South Korea maintain stable governments and consolidate alliances with the US, while systemic escalation risks remain constrained by the high costs of conflict.