US-CHINA RIVALRY DRIVES ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY AND TRADE IN 2026

The US-PRC rivalry dominates Asia-Pacific geopolitics in 2026, shaping regional security priorities and economic governance with heightened competition between Washington and Beijing. The Philippines and US have committed to over 500 joint military exercises this year, including Japanese ground forces firing ship-killing missiles in noncombat roles for the first time, alarming Beijing. The QUAD has transformed into an operational architecture with a $20 billion Critical Minerals Initiative spanning maritime surveillance, energy security, and port infrastructure across Pacific Islands. PLA military activity around Taiwan will intensify with likely major exercises in 2026, while China counters with increased maritime militia presence in disputed features, accelerating grey-zone dynamics.