Experts see external threats looming large, but the most dangerous threat in 2026 is not a Russian tank but a European veto. A credible black swan is the emergence of a more disciplined alliance of illiberal or hard-populist governments inside the EU working in concert to weaken EU authority from within. This internal threat is more dangerous than any external military force, as it could unravel the EU’s core values and institutional integrity.
The prospect of a coalition of the willing led by illiberal governments is a real risk, and its emergence could trigger a chain of reactions that undermine the EU’s authority. The EU’s legislative response to the current international crisis is an attempt at strategic fine-tuning rather than a rupture, but the internal threat of an illiberal alliance could change that. The EU must navigate this challenge carefully to avoid a deeper crisis that could shake its internal stability.
The EU’s legislative response to the current international crisis is an attempt to reshape globalization around resilience, decarbonization, and economic security. However, the internal threat of an illiberal alliance could undermine this strategy and lead to a breakdown in the EU’s institutional integrity. The EU must be vigilant in the face of this threat and take steps to ensure its survival in an increasingly volatile world.
The bottom line is that the internal threat of an illiberal alliance is a real risk that could unravel the EU’s authority from within. The EU must be vigilant in the face of this threat and take steps to ensure its survival in an increasingly volatile world. The emergence of an illiberal alliance is a black swan that could change the course of the EU’s future.