Russia’s war in Ukraine has not only intensified traditional military threats but also emboldened a new wave of hybrid warfare targeting Europe’s democratic institutions, energy grids, and digital infrastructure. According to a January 2026 survey by the EUISS and the European University Institute, the top risks for the EU are hybrid warfare and an emboldened Russia, converging with the prospect of US withdrawal from NATO[5]. This convergence could leave the EU or specific countries more vulnerable if both threats materialize simultaneously[5].
The EU’s military posture has undergone an overhaul in response to Russia’s aggression, but political instability in France and Germany, along with stalled defence programmes, has dampened the bloc’s ability to act decisively[1]. The rise of right-wing parties in key member states has further complicated the consensus needed for a unified defence strategy, creating gaps in Europe’s security architecture that Russia is exploiting through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns[1].
Experts see external threats looming large, from hardening political rivalries to the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, which continues to drain resources and divide EU member states on critical issues[1]. The EU’s reliance on the World Trade Organisation and multilateral systems is increasingly threatened by the US-China rivalry, which has securitized technology and selective decoupling, reshaping geopolitics through data and supply chains[4]. This dynamic has forced the EU to adopt a more strategic approach to trade policy, competition, and fiscal instruments to safeguard its sovereignty[4].
As the EU faces a world no longer shaped by familiar certainties, the collision of fiscal pressure, defence demands, and climate spending creates a dangerous environment where permanent crisis mode could become the norm[1]. The bloc must now navigate a hostile geopolitical landscape where hybrid warfare and the threat of US withdrawal converge, leaving Europe vulnerable unless it can accelerate its strategic autonomy and defence integration.
