Forget AI hype—2026 crowns geopolitics king in Asia-Pacific, with flashpoints from Taiwan to Iran overshadowing innovation. Global tensions, including Russia-Ukraine, keep markets jittery despite surface calm, as per expert Geoff Dennis.
National security drives investment: surging defense budgets, AI safeguards, and mineral rushes position winners in a fragmented order. U.S.-China competition accelerates decoupling in tech and biotech, with tariffs as geostrategic weapons.
A pre-summit thaw might emerge before Trump's April Xi meeting, trading U.S. chip strength for Chinese rare earths. Yet, Washington's APAC posture—more deal-making than blanket guarantees—tests allies like Australia and the Philippines.
Opportunities abound for active managers eyeing regional differentiators, from semiconductors to Indo-Pacific infrastructure. Beijing's power quest reshapes the region, forcing partners to choose sides in a pact-or-fiction standoff.
