The European Union's enlargement machinery, dormant since Brexit accelerated doubts about the bloc's absorption capacity, is grinding back to life. Montenegro stands on the threshold of membership after over a decade of accession negotiations, finally closing chapters on judicial reform and anti-corruption measures that once seemed perpetually stalled. Yet the context for this renewal bears no resemblance to the optimistic 1990s and 2000s when integration was framed as inevitable progress. Today, it's geopolitical necessity.
The Western Balkans represent the EU's unfinished business. For years, Brussels treated enlargement as a technical process: harmonize your laws, strengthen institutions, demonstrate rule of law. The approach worked imperfectly in the 1990s and early 2000s, but it broke down as candidate countries watched older members experience crises and populism. Why rush to join a club that seemed to offer fewer guarantees than neutrality?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine shattered that calculus overnight. Suddenly, EU and NATO membership transformed from bureaucratic achievements into existential security. The geopolitical context inverted: instead of candidates begging for entry, the EU urgently needs the Western Balkans anchored to the West before Moscow and Beijing offer competing visions of regional order. Montenegro's accession is less about whether it meets Copenhagen Criteria and more about whether the Kremlin can destabilize it before it joins.
This shift creates new tensions. Fast-tracking enlargement on geopolitical grounds risks admitting states with incomplete democratic reforms or corruption vulnerabilities. Yet deliberate pace risks leaving candidates vulnerable to interference. The Commission must navigate between two disastrous outcomes: either the EU becomes a security alliance that abandons its liberal values, or the bloc remains so rigid that it cedes strategic territory to adversaries. Montenegro's path to membership will telegraph which future Europe chooses.
