Control of the House and Senate — and a verdict on Trump — is decided on 3 November.
The latest New York Times/Siena survey — the polling most forecasters treat as a benchmark — puts Democrats up around eight points on the generic ballot, with the president's approval near 38%. Voters say they trust Democrats more on health care, immigration and the cost of living, and independents have swung sharply toward the opposition.
Gas, mortgage rates and stubborn inflation are undercutting the president's closing pitch, with about two-thirds of voters saying the administration has fallen short on the cost of living.
Texas redrew five seats toward Republicans at Trump's urging; California answered with five toward Democrats via Prop 50, cleared by the Supreme Court. The two largest moves roughly cancel.
With a long-time Republican incumbent defending in a state that leans slightly Democratic, Wisconsin sits at the top of the list of seats that could decide the chamber.
At the party's midterm convention, the president promised a $5,000 payment to every American adult should the GOP keep both chambers — a bid to fire up turnout.
Aggregated models give Democrats a clear edge to win the House and roughly three-in-five odds in the Senate, though a handful of map-advantaged races could still hand Republicans divided government.
Surveys show opposition voters more motivated than the president's base — the kind of intensity gap that has preceded past midterm waves.
The most consequential fight of this cycle began before any campaign — with a map. In July 2025 Trump urged Texas to redraw its districts mid-decade to manufacture five new Republican seats. California answered in kind, engineering five for Democrats and passing it as Proposition 50. Other states piled in on both sides.
States pick their nominees.
Polls close and the count begins — control of Congress on the line.
Winners are sworn in; the new balance of power takes hold.