The danger in the 'three borders' area straddling Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continues to exhaust Sahelian populations, who have been drained after twenty years of terrorist violence despite the Alliance of Sahel States' security show. The region remains deeply vulnerable to violent extremism as global attention, mediation, and political capital are increasingly stretched. Conflicts across Africa remain unresolved as international focus shifts to Ukraine, Gaza, and recent events in Venezuela.
Ethiopia's security situation persists despite the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, with tensions with Eritrea sharpening over maritime access and sovereignty concerns. Israel's unilateral recognition of Somaliland has stirred unresolved sovereignty questions, risking sharper divisions within Somalia and Somaliland. These trends heighten the risk of escalation in an already volatile neighborhood that could destabilize the entire region.
The most urgent task is helping Mogadishu get a handle on security in Somalia, even if that means preparing it to make do with less external support. The AU should clarify with the EU and other donors what funding is likely to be available for AUSSOM in 2026, as external support continues to fraying. Somalia's neighbors, including Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, working with the AU and IGAD, could help broker a political agreement concerning forthcoming elections.
The war in Sudan continues to fragment the state and deepen the humanitarian crisis, with competing regional interests blocking meaningful progress toward mediation. Despite increased US engagement in late 2025, international attention remains focused on other conflicts, leaving African nations to manage their own security challenges with limited support. The Quad roadmap offers limited hope for 2026, constrained by divergent Arab priorities and weak enforcement mechanisms.
Without decisive international intervention and regional cooperation, the Sahel will continue to be a zone of perpetual violence that exhausts populations and threatens to destabilize the entire continent through escalating terrorism and political exclusion.
