A credible black swan event for 2026 is the emergence of a more disciplined alliance of illiberal or hard-populist governments inside the EU working in concert to weaken EU authority from within[3]. In this scenario, the shock to the bloc would not be a Russian tank but a European veto, effectively paralyzing the EU's ability to make decisive action on defence and security[3]. This internal fragmentation poses a greater threat to European unity than any external geopolitical pressure, as it undermines the very principle of shared sovereignty that the EU was built on.
Political instability in France and Germany, combined with the rise of right-wing parties, has already had a sanding effect on decisive action, particularly in stalled defence programmes[3]. The inability to pass key defence initiatives is a direct result of this internal political fragmentation, which is now threatening to escalate into a full-blown crisis of EU authority. As member states prioritize their domestic political survival over collective European security, the EU's capacity to respond to external threats is increasingly compromised.
The EU has made real institutional progress, including appointing its first-ever Commissioner for Defence and adopting the Strategic Compass, but these measures are being undermined by the growing influence of illiberal governments within the bloc[10]. Without a unified political front, the EU's defence and security policies will remain fragmented and ineffective, leaving Europe vulnerable to the evolving threats from Russia and other adversaries. The risk is that the EU will be forced into a defensive posture, unable to project power or shape the global security environment.
The European Council and the European Parliament are expected to focus on the EU's continued support for Ukraine and the latest developments in the Middle East, but these priorities are being overshadowed by the internal political crisis[2]. The question of whether the EU can maintain its cohesion in the face of rising illiberalism is now the central challenge for the bloc's future. If the alliance of illiberal governments succeeds in its efforts to weaken EU authority, the consequences for European security and economic stability could be catastrophic.
The Florence Report calls for a renewed European Social Contract that places growth and competitiveness at the heart of the EU's agenda, but this vision is threatened by the rise of illiberalism within the bloc[1]. Without a credible strategy to counter the influence of hard-populist governments, the EU risks losing its ability to act as a cohesive force in the global arena. The coming months will determine whether the EU can successfully navigate the internal political crisis and maintain its authority, or whether it will be paralyzed by the illiberal veto.
